Fear Nothing

Someone asked me what the implications of the Iran-Israel spat would be. Well, it is too early to tell. Both sides are not committed to a truce and it keeps getting complicated.

I think most of the world is smarter now. No one wants to go lay down their life for someone who doesn't even care about them. It is going to get tricky.

But as a long-term investor, time is your friend. It is better to be a little bit late than to be early. When people say the party is over, it is probably just getting started.

Don't fear the threat of a world war and what it would do to the global economy. Fear has no value. Fear will mess up your investing. You need the calmness that comes from insight and intuition.

I don't believe in investing plainly on intuition. This is because your mind can play games on you, especially when it is a subject you care deeply about. You have to add knowledge and insight.

Successful long-term investors are conservative in their approach. You don't invest for the world of today. You invest for the world of the next 25 years. War or no war, life will go on.

If you let fear make you hesitate when you should have taken action, you lose. Remember that if it were easy, everybody would do it.

Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin halving is a great event in the cryptoverse. This is when the reward for mining bitcoin drops in half. This reduces supply heading to the 21 million final supply cap.

Will this do anything to the price of bitcoin in the short term? No. There won't be any significant instant price changes because of this. The cycle continues.

This might set the stage for bitcoin to break the 100k level before the end of the year. That is if there is no crash.

Remember, bitcoin crashes are opportunities to buy. Bitcoin's all-time highs are opportunities to sell and rebalance.

Long-Term Bonds

I'll keep saying this - stay away from long-term bonds. That system will collapse soon. Now, I don't know when it will collapse. But I am willing to bet that in 25 years, long-term bonds are no longer a viable thing.

This whole idea of "loan forgiveness" will spread like wildfire. Think about this - if they print money, why do we pay taxes?

People are getting hammered on two ends. First, there is inflation. Second, tax burdens are increasing. Why not pick one? Or better still, why not pick none?

If you are buying long-term bonds, you are betting that governments will keep collecting taxes. And I am betting on the opposing side of that. I think the collection of taxes will end soon. In fact, I'm willing to bet that it will start to happen in some countries before the end of this decade.

Bond yields will continue in the 4-5% range for now. I have been saying that since last year 2023. I do not recommend it so much because of the market trends. But if you are going to invest in them, stay on the short end of the yield curve.

Ukraine - Russia

The weapons manufacturing companies are the big winners here. This is one of the reasons the stock market is supported in its bullish sentiment. A lot of the money that is printed to support the war efforts, by the USA finds itself in the stock market.

With that, stocks can't go down easy. But inflation will keep rising.

The defence contractors are swimming in money right now. Some would say it is blood money. But who cares? They certainly don't.

It doesn't matter who wins the war in Ukraine. Ukraine is unlikely to come out victorious. While Russia is trying to avoid a full-scale war with NATO.

The goal of the funder of the war (aka the USA) is not for one side to win. It is for the war to go on for as long as possible. Why?

War is a high-yielding economic activity. Never forget this. Behind every politician agitating war or fighting, is a defence contractor who's done the math on how life-changing money will be made. Be smart and always think outside the box.

No career politician talks in support of something without being incentivised. Be wise.

Conclusion

Nothing changes with bitcoin halving. Just keep following the cycle. Be cautious about long-term bonds. They may become a wasted investment due to the current trajectory of global finance.

Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Russia. None of them will crash the stock market. In fact, the stock market is up because of those conflicts. Never forget that the market will crash when the Fed panics. That is the only trigger that matters.

Fear nothing. Stay rich